A major report on food security, launched in 2026, Just in Case: narrowing the UK civil food resilience gap, by Professor Tim Lang, gives us a warning of what we need to prepare for. We created a website to summarise the calls to action in this enormously detailed report: FoodSecurityAction.org.
1. Future food poverty
Food prices will rise inexorably. In August 2025, according to the ONS, food inflation was 5.1%, which means doubling in 14 years, with fresh food prices rising the fastest, raising the cost of a healthy diet disproportionately. But 5.1% is just the start, as the pressures mount. Severe climate over-heating in Europe will increasingly restrict our future imports of fresh food. (Tim Lang’s report shows that we import 78% of our fruit and vegetables.) Domestic growing of these foods is concentrated in the East of England, the part of the country particularly vulnerable to both flooding and drought. Meanwhile, wars are escalating. These restrict global trade routes, and they drive up the price of fuel used by our carbon-intensive food system.
The inability of people to afford food is one of the cruellest consequences of poverty. In January this year, one in seven UK households struggled to afford food, according to the Food Foundation’s food insecurity tracker. The bad news is that this problem is going to get worse – much worse. Food poverty campaigners and food poverty services are battling against an incoming tide of increasing food prices, driven by rising economic inequality and corporate over-control of our food supply. We are going to have to change our food system profoundly.
2. Land price inflation
As economic inequality spirals and the rich become richer, the price of all assets rises. That includes land. In Wales, land is already priced at three times its agricultural value because it is seen as a good investment by those with wealth. This is gradually sucking farmland out of farming. In 2023, non-farmers bought more than half of the farms and estates sold in the UK, according to Strutt & Parker. It is blocking farming from a new generation that could mobilise in response to the growing food crisis. So, as food prices rise, our ability to grow our own food is diminishing.
3. Centralised power in the food system
We have already lost control of our food supply to powerful corporations. 95% of our shop-bought food comes through ten supermarkets. Such concentrated power is not kind to farmers, driving down the prices they get so that they have to depend on Government subsidies. According to Welsh Government figures, farm business incomes in Wales are reducing, as is productivity, and the number of farms making a loss is increasing, currently 24% of all Welsh farms. As economic inequality grows and Governments become poorer and poorer under the current system, the prospects for future farming subsidies are not good.
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